polling

Public polling from 4 November on the 2019 Chilean Protests

in

More polling on the 2019 Chilean protests came out over the weekend; in addition to the weekly bulletin from Cadem, the Millennium Nucleus in Social Development (DESOC; a Chilean research center, funded by the government) released their own “Social Thermometer” regarding the present situation. Although methodologies and specific questions differ slightly, both studies are in remarkable agreement with each other, and show widespread support for the current demonstrations and the desire for profound institutional change within Chile.

My summary follows.

  • With respect to the protests, 85% approve of the “social mobilization” (DESOC) and 72% wish for the mobilizations and marches to continue (Cadem). Of the latter, the majority of almost all demographics—gender, age, socioeconomic background, and political orientation—wish for the mobilizations to continue. The exception is the political right, but even then almost 40% of respondents identifying as politically right-wing believe the demonstrations should continue (Cadem).

  • The most important issues identified by respondents are pensions, health care, and constitutional reform. Other important issues include education, labor reform, tax reform, and inequality.

  • The vast majority want a new constitution (DESOC - 80%; Cadem - 87%). There is broad support for a constituent assembly (DESOC - 76%; Cadem - 46% constituent assembly only, 27% a mixed constituent assembly and congressional action).

  • Moreso than inequality, justice is the most frequently mentioned word in terms of both what defines the current social movement, as well as the demands of said movement.

I feel sufficiently supported by data to say now: this is a tremendous movement with its roots across the entirety of Chilean society. This is not a partisan movement. You don’t get 80% of the population calling for a new constitution without support from all over the political spectrum. Everyone—rich, poor, left, right, old, young—recognize the necessity of change.

Ignore them at your own peril.

Some, but not all, of the figures follow, with my (extremely unofficial) translations.

Public polling from 25 October on the 2019 Chilean protests

in

I’ve been eagerly awaiting Cadem’s polling from the past weekend, the first from the public polling firm since curfew was imposed. Here I translate some figures from the latest report from Saturday, 25 October (available here in Spanish).

Key results (my summary):

  • President Sebastian Piñera’s handling of the crisis is historically unpopular. Approval of Piñera hit an all-time low of 14%, while disapproval hit an all-time high of 78%. A majority disapprove of Piñera across all demographics—which include age groups, social classes, and political inclinations. Poor management is listed as the leading reason for disapproval. Approval of Piñera’s cabinet hit a low of 11%, while disapproval hit a high of 80%. These levels have not been seen since Bachelet’s second term.

  • Most (72%) view the crisis as “an expression of generalized social discontent.” Similarly, the most common reason cited for acts of violence is social discontent, followed by low pensions. “Enact social change” is viewed as the main course of action the government should take, followed by “improve pensions.”

  • A majority of Chileans take a favorable view of efforts to restore law and order. A majority are in favor of the decision to declare a curfew (55%) and a State of Emergency/martial law (49%). The use of violence and vandalism of the Metro, as well as looting of commercial establishments, are almost universally condemned. Majorities approve of the behavior of the Carabineros (52%), Navy (47%), and Army (47%).

  • Political parties in the crisis are deeply unpopular. Most disapprove of the behavior of the various political coalitions and parties during the crisis, with little variation based on political orientation; no coalition/party surpasses 16% approval, nor falls below 64% disapproval.

My translations of select figures follow.